Assessing spatiotemporal variations and predicting changes in ecosystem service values in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Rapid economic development and interference by human activities in rapid urbanization regions have caused great land use/land cover change (LUCC), which significantly affects ecosystem functions services. It is crucial to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of service value (ESV) such regions, especially for Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) China. In this study, we investigated predicted effect LUCC on ESV GBA from 1990 2030 using latest annual 30 m database China, future use simulation (FLUS) model, evaluation approaches. The study period was divided into historical (1990–2015) forecast (2015–2030). results showed that forest cropland were dominant land-use types (>77% GBA), expansion built-up (3822.4 km2) clearest process during 1990–2015. reduction contributed most decrease total ESV. Moreover, confirmed FLUS model effective at predicting GBA. 4962.23 × 100 million yuan 2030s under current mode if regional waterbody reductions are not constrained. This provides a reference promoting rational resources ecological construction can help promote planning environmental protection.